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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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