Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
